NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE
On average since 2002, the United Methodist Church in the U.S. has lost 52,000 attendees each year. In 2014 alone there was a 2.6% decline in worship attendance, the largest one year decrease in denominational history. These annual losses have been persistent over the past 12 years, seemingly undisturbed by influences inside and outside the church. A continuation of this decline for another 36 years ends with the disassembly of the denomination as we know it. However, this need not occur. In fact, ILCG’s Benchmark Strategy, combined with other important efforts in place, ensures a turnaround of the decline by 2021. This would mark the first mainline denomination in the U.S. to return to sustained growth.
United Methodist Denomination
The advisors at ILCG have studied the spending patterns of successful churches with growing worship attendance and predict that to reverse the decline of 52,000 attendees per year, it will take 998 participating churches, increasing annual budgets by a total of $39,850,000 to disrupt the decline and return to a pattern of growth. The effort relies on a 3-year investment in growth totaling $120 million—enough to stimulate growth in worship attendance sufficient to reverse the decline by 2021—within 7 years if 998 participating churches are secured. ILCG has pinpointed spending deficiencies in programs and non-clergy staff as the main contributing factors to the decline in worship attendance and has developed a model that targets the specific deficiency within the local church and assigns a spending recommendation to accomplish the necessary repair that stimulates growth.
Why We Do It
The world is missing out on the hope, truth, and power of the Gospel. The local church remains the best vehicle by which its message is spread. The secular press continues to challenge the work of the Church with its predictions of decline and rejection among the younger generations. Instead, the local church can grow and prove its capacity to change lives and communities. Growing Christian churches among our mainline denominations and beyond is a real possibility.
What We Use
- Local Church Geodata
- Local Church Indicators: Worship Attendance and Congregational Giving—past 5 years
- Local Church Spending Patterns—Past 5 years
- Pastoral leadership—Past 10 years
- Establishment of Benchmarks
- Statistical projections—Next 5 years
What We Do
ILCG works side by side with local church leaders to identify internal deficiencies through comparisons with thriving peer group outcomes. Comparisons bring broad solutions that are refined or customized by local church leaders. In the end, the local church becomes more effective in ministry to community and in making disciples of Christ.
How We Do It
ILCG takes a comprehensive approach to measuring and understanding the impacts of the changing composition of churches. Based upon statistical analyses of over 1 million local church records—about 32,000 churches over 28 years — sophisticated simulation models have been developed to scrutinize past experience, clarify present standing and discern the factors that provide the foundation for a vibrant future.
